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唐驳虎:特朗普真正的大杀招来了!一举ko拜登?
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唐驳虎:特朗普真正的大杀招来了!一举ko拜登?

2020年10月16日 18:55:27
来源:唐驳虎

文/凤凰新闻客户端荣誉主笔 唐驳虎

核心提示:

1、距离大选还有20天,特朗普和共和党忽然又放出“邮件门”的大招,声称从一台送修的疑似拜登基金会电脑里,还原出拜登之子借父亲名义以权谋私,与乌克兰商人进行交易的“实锤”邮件证据。

2、近一年川普为了调查此事在选举中打败拜登,曾经向乌克兰总统施压,这一非正常举动也称为民主党人攻击特朗普的把柄。而民主党人关于乌克兰事件有完全不同的版本,两党陷入里罗生门困境。

3、虽然共和党第一次拿出了实锤证据,选择了类似于希拉里邮件门的相似时机,爆料人也出面增加可信度。但公布的两封核心邮件离证明拜登违规施压乌克兰还差得远。

4、目前对许多真正重要的中间选民而言,他们的首要需求是把川普赶下台。目前民调显示,拜登在几大摇摆州大幅领先川普两位数以上,甚至可能威胁到共和党的铁盘——得克萨斯州。

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有用吗?没啥作用吧

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在民主党选民看来,拜登的这点事情自然算不得上个事。而对许多真正重要的中间选民而言,他们的首要需求是把川普赶下台。

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重要摇摆州盘点

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拜登同样赢得了两位数(10个百分点以上)的优势,这已经不能叫摇摆州了。

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根据推演,即使在非常不利的情况下,例如拜登没有赢下佛州,还丢掉了一连串摇摆州。但只要还能拿下宾州和另一个摇摆州,拜登同样能险胜。

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在这些州,拜登分别领先约1.6%、7%、5.1%、6.7%。虽然胜负未定,但在各传统摇摆州,拜登全部占有优势甚至是明显优势。

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