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唐驳虎:这才是印度对华挑衅的最根本原因和动机
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唐驳虎:这才是印度对华挑衅的最根本原因和动机

2020年09月29日 18:37:06
来源:唐驳虎

文/凤凰新闻客户端荣誉主笔 唐驳虎

核心提示:

1、 总的来看,印度人口体量已接近中国(14亿对13.8亿),主要经济指标(如总体、人 均、电力、油耗、汽车)大致相当于2003年的中国。但在钢铁、水泥等基建方面差距较大,相当于中国90年代水平。

2、2019年的印度与中国,隔着的是制度、文化等全方位的差距。中国对印出口是进口的4倍以上, 中国对印度的商品顺差达到了每年4000亿人民币量级 。中国出口的是工业制成品,而印度大部分是原材料、低端产品。

3、 中国2016年时候服务业比重才第一次超过50%,而印度有将近六成的GDP都是服务业 ,没有制造业和现代化产业为支撑,“虚”“弱”得很。莫迪大力扶持制造业,推行“Make in India”计划,目标就是要把印度转变成全球制造中心。

4、 从印度的立场看 ,具有先发优势,多、快、好、省的“中国制造”,正是他们发展民族工 业、推动经济发展的巨大障碍。通过边境挑衅,煽动反华情绪,抵制中国商品,这就是印度挑衅的内政目标。

5、 近10年来中印边境对峙升级的另一个主要原因,就是近15年中国边境地区的大手笔交通基础设施投资,使得中国有能力夯实很多模糊地段的管控。从短期看,当然是一边强化交通一边增强边控,最终击退印度挑衅。但从长期看,需要持续关注印度经济的发展。

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人口相当,中国经济是印度5倍

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崛起前夜的印度?

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jieguodao2017nian,jiuxunsukuodawei5.8bei、596yimeiyuan。

印度对华出口171亿美元

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| 统计图表来源:中华人民共和国商务部,下同

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印度对华进口857亿美元

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从比例上看,印度对华逆差大于美国

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中印之间的结构性冲突

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yinci,“quzhongguohua”shizaibixing——bazhongguoshangpinganchuqu,bajihuiliujiyinduqiye。

经济难题无解,就只好诉诸民族主义了

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抵制中国商品,就是印度挑衅的内政目的

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suonan·wangchukefabushipin,haozhaoyindurenyong“qianbaoliliang”dizhizhongguochanpinyiyingduibianjingjiangju,bingqiejichulexiangyingdeshijianheluxian:

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总结

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